Cinch Magazine- Your Online Equestrian Source

135th Kentucky Derby Qualifiers: Who Will Take The Roses?

Cinch Magazine, J.L. Orchard

In 135 years, the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, held every first Saturday in May, has yet to disappoint us. With artful pan outs and fades for TV viewers, the close ups on the horses, exhaling steam in the mist of an early morning workout, and the filtered images of the mile and a quarter track that has fashioned, or ruptured, the dreams of a thousand horsemen over. And for the viewers in the grandstands each year, it is a feeling of awe as all before them history could be in the making. And this year, no matter what happens, should yield the same enthusiasm and passion that has caused this sport to be called, The Sport of Kings, and this day to be called: the greatest two minutes in horseracing.

The likelihood of a dream come true after the derby could be as likely as being struck by thunder (yes, thunder). If I may borrow from Joe Drape's novel, The Race for the Triple Crown, Joe Drape calculates that prior to the 2000 Kentucky Derby: 35,078 thoroughbred foals were born and registered in 1997. 10,936 (31%) of these foals went on to race as two year olds. The following year only 1.1% (387 horses) of this were nominated to run in the derby and by May 6, only 19 horses left the starting gate … that is .005%. One horse out of thousands. One trainer. One Jockey. One dream shared by every person immersed in the Sport of Kings. That's millions. A million people dreaming of one win … and only one will get it.

The prep races leading towards the Kentucky Derby this year have presented some of those few hopefuls that have managed to come this close to that one dream. Feisty Suances had the early lead at the Santa Anita Derby on April 4th, until Pioneerof the Nile, trained by Bob Baffert, careened forward in the second turn to cherry top his so-far impressive 2009 season. Pioneerof the Nile, though popular among the prophets of the derby, and holds a nice five for eight record, could fall ill to the same fate as his sire, Empire Maker, who slipped just a length and three-quarters behind Funny Cide in the 2003 Kentucky Derby to place second. Nonetheless, he remains a top-favorite, and high in the charts as being one of the most likely horses to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Although Wood Memorial favorite, I Want Revenge, paused in the starting gate, he didn't seem fazed when he had to find a gap between three horses to add a third win to his eight starts. I Want Revenge is ranked high in the prophets' books but in comparison to others that are running in the derby, his stable better hope he's a late bloomer. His impressive March 7th Gotham Stakes victory seems to be the main benefactor to his present popularity, maybe he can make a repeat impression.

Always a pleasant race to watch, the Florida Derby, which produced last years Kentucky Derby winner, Big Brown, remained organized and memorable. Quality Road held to second throughout most of the race. Taking the lead in the homestretch, he battled it to the line with other derby contender, Dunkirk. Both horses gave an impressive run, ending with Quality Road winning by a length and three-quarters. Following the race, the third place-winning rider made an objection against both Quality Road and Dunkirk's riders, but it didn't hold up.

Dunkirk, has had an over-all good year, winning two of his three starts and although not yet a definite for the derby he is a horse to keep your eye on for the future. Quality Road looks like the horse that could make the real impact in this year's derby. A maiden breaker, he came second only once, winning the remainder of his four starts. Unfortunately, a quarter crack was discovered after the Florida Derby. Ian McKinlay, who oversaw Big Brown's many hoof ailments, is treating Quality Road, and although his trainer remains optimistic that they'll be at the derby, a lot remains in question.

There are still a number of other horses to watch at this year's derby. Some may hope that there is nothing to keep 'Hold Me Back' from the winner's circle but he did slip to second in the Blue Grass, and didn't take to the dirt surface. The British-bred, Mafaaz has won half of his starts but ran a less than impressive eighth in the Blue Grass.

Trainer, Saeed bin Suroon's horses, Regal Ransom and Desert Party, took the first two places in their prep race, the U.A.E Derby. Desert Party, though he got second, is favored by many for the derby. Half brother to Funny Cide, Regal Ransom has only won two of his five starts.

With pedigree connections to Canadian Triple Crown winner, Dance Smartly, and having been sired by 2-year leading sire, Smart Strike, Square Eddie placed second in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But with such an impressive lineage you might have assumed that he'd have won more than two of out seven races.

It's been a great year so far for Friesan Fire with three wins at Fair Grounds and another win in 2008. With the stamina of Seattle Slew bred into him, Friesan Fire also has bloodline connections to Australian champions. He is favored in the top five most likely to take the derby.

Two more on the list are Musket Man, who won the Illinois Derby and has only lost one of his six starts, and Win Willy who won the Rebel at Oaklawn Park. With only one bad record (sixth at a November allowance), bloodlines to Northern Dancer, and the thrust he possesses on dirt, Win Willy is definitely a horse to watch.

Beethoven's running, although he has a cute face, needed some polishing before the derby. He does like Churchill dirt but would have to run like a Giacamo to win- who also happened to win on a May 2nd derby. Unfortunately, with rumors of recent injury, this longshot might not get that chance. But longshot, West Side Bernie, who won two races as a two-year-old, might be able to drive the upset.

Old Fashioned is out of the derby with an injury, and the classy filly, Stardom Bound, has also been removed from the list along with The Pamplemousse, and Vineyard Haven. One of the most disappointing horses to see leave the derby list though is Midshipman, who, after winning the 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and being named 2008 Champion Juvenile Colt, had many hopes upon him to break the endless twine of failed Triple Crown attempts. The colt had been racing in Dubai when he suffered a soft tissue injury to his left foreleg while exercising at Al Quoz Stables. Midshipman would have been at the derby but now it seems he may not race again until later in the season. He should return to America sometime in April, and if he does resume racing again, keep your eyes open, this is one horse to look for at the Breeders' Cup Classic.

This year at the derby, anything can happen. We respectfully remember Eight Belles, the powerful filly that fought Big Brown to the wire at last year's derby, but was injured and euthanized directly afterwards. We realize that these horses can be fragile, and that those that win, win with heart, and a spirit to win. And in the greatest two minutes of horseracing, heart and spirit, is the one combination you can hope for to propel your horse to the line … After all of their training, pedigree, and care, when the horses set loose from the gates at the one-hundred and thirty fifth running of the Kentucky Derby, it all comes down to heart, and no matter which horse it is, it is that which will ignite in one horse, and make one horse only … in an instant … great.